Post by Washington Insiders on Apr 18, 2023 16:06:03 GMT -5
James sent this out via email, but I decided to post it here for easier finding if anyone wishes to do so in the future. Thanks James for writing this up, very good read!
2023 OIFL Dispersal Draft Preview
This is an interesting dispersal draft class, for sure. It only has one superstar, but there are plenty of players, both young and old that will be helpful to some teams. I have broken the players down by position with some analysis on each.
DS
Meier – DS isn’t usually a position that’s very highly valued in drafts, but based on his age and attributes, I could see Meier being a fairly early pick.
Lippman – He’ll likely be on an opening week roster but he’s going to need a lot of tackling work to have any kind of real role going forward.
Ruscio – He’s only entering his 2nd year but might not even make a final roster unless he has a nice camp.
Barnhill - He’s a solid vet who has the potential to continue to get better. His superior tackling sets him apart from most DS.
Duggan – See Ruscio above.
OLDL
Smith – His age makes him hard to gauge in terms of where he will get drafted, but he is arguably the most talented OLDL in this draft, at least for this season. I can’t see him being picked ahead of McCarron, though.
Hillitzer – Like Smith, an older OLDL with a lot of talent. Unfortunately, he is even older and his lower leadership could mean he doesn’t last really long after this season. If I was drafting Smith, it would be with 2023 solely in mind and then anything else would be gravy.
Mackey – He’s a veteran who has been around a while but still needs work to play significant snaps. Having said that, he could be a good camp project for the right team, as long as he’s not drafted very high.
Jackson – Another older guy who is very solid but has never been spectacular. He could be a buy-low starter or a deep reserve. It all depends on where he lands.
Kelly – Kelly is a young guy who will be attractive to a lot of teams. He needs blocking work but is a nice prospect with plenty of room to grow. Expect him to be a fairly high pick.
Harding – He’s a veteran who is on the cusp of being a viable starter. One camp should get him there.
Daviault – He’s a young prospect who I’m sure some teams will like, but there are still multiple holes in his game.
Booth – He’s a former high first round pick who has never done much in the league but is still young. It’s going to take a nice camp for him to get much playing time, though. He’ll probably make the back end of a roster and not much more unless someone heavily invests in him.
McCarron – He was the brightest spot on a very dismal MEM team last year and figures to be a great player down the line. He’s already a viable starter and has the potential to be much more. I can’t see him getting beyond the first few picks, and if RIC stays at #2, he makes a ton of sense for them.
Halbert – Young prospect who still needs a lot of camp work to play much, but is definitely trainable.
Shamburger – Currently, the only thing that he can really do at a league average level is blitz, but for an OLDL it’s a good starting point. He’s very young and only in his 2nd year so some team will be excited to draft him.
Barber – He’s a young veteran who seems ready to make a breakthrough. I imagine that he’ll be highly sought after in this draft. Not a great tackler at present but his speed should negate that somewhat.
Metz – He’s very interesting. He’s been around for a while but has plenty left in the tank. He’s got solid attributes across the board but he probably won’t improve a ton in camp unless he’s part of a group train.
Trowbridge – Young, lower end prospect who will likely latch on somewhere
Stockdale – He’s a little like Barber but his lack of speed and tackling hurt him. He’s still very young so someone will be happy to train him up.
OS
Minnich – At this point, he’s an extreme longshot to make a final OIFL roster, despite his youth. He’ll still end up in camp somewhere.
QB
Kopfstein – He has starting experience but projects better as a backup. Then again, it’s not a great year for QBs in free agency or dispersal so stranger things have happened.
Kingseed – He’s the best of the dispersal QBs, but still an enigma. He’s still young but has been around for a while as both a backup and a starter, putting up some solid numbers when he did play. His legs are his best asset. If you’re looking for a pocket passer, keep looking.
Fitzgibbons – Young QB who currently is a 3rd string QB type on most teams, but has a little potential
RBDB
Staley, Jr. – He’s a veteran who’s a solid backup RBDB or spot starter. His superior tackling probably makes him best suited for a S role on defense.
Shepherd – He’s clearly the favorite to be picked first in this draft, especially since POR has a big need at RB. The crazy thing is, that if he was a DS, he’d probably still be a top
5, maybe even top 3 pick in this draft. He finished 3rd in the league in rushing last year and figures to only get better. He could be the piece that gets the Pioneers back into yearly playoff contention.
RBLB
Poulilot – It’s kinda crazy that he’s the only official RBLB in this draft. He’s far from a star but a good guy to have and could be useful in 2 back sets due to his blocking skills.
TEDL
Morris – Morris is a true wildcard. He’s only entering his 2nd season and he was a fairly high 1st rounder last year. Right now, he’s one of those guys who is a jack of all trades but a master of none. He was drafted by Philadelphia with the idea of unlocking his potential but he ended up being a bit of an afterthought in camp and was subsequently traded to Lincoln. He remains an intriguing prospect who could really blossom with the right team and the proper focus from the staff.
WRDB
Hanson – I see Hanson as someone who will go in the first 5 picks in this draft and maybe even top 3. The OIFL is a league that values and sometimes even overvalues speed and while he’s no Seymour Heller, Hanson definitely is fast enough to get noticed by many teams. He’s still a better DS at this point than WRDB but if you can get the fast, young WRDB prospect you generally don’t think twice.
Arryn – He’s been around a while and isn’t a star but can definitely play. At this point, he’s a little better offensively than defensively.
Fortney – Fortney is another guy who will likely be an early pick, and possibly top 5. He’s not nearly as flashy as a guy like Hanson is, but he is more well balanced. If you need a 2 way WRDB who can make some things happen after the catch, Fortney is a great pick.
Carr – Very young, 2nd year player who isn’t very good yet and won’t play much until he improves.
Edwards – A little older than Carr but also entering his 2nd season. Right now he projects as more of a DS but is still a very big project at best. He might not make it out of camp.
Blevins – He’s a vet who isn’t great but will make a roster. If he works on his speed and pass defense a little, he might actually earn more time at DS.
WRLB
Huber – He’s got a little talent in a lot of places but does no one thing very well. He’s young and trainable but needs a lot of work to see significant snaps anywhere.
Hansen – Not to be confused with WRDB HANSON. He’s technically a 2nd year player but age wise he’s more like a rookie. He couldn’t tackle your grandmother and isn’t really great anywhere but he’s the kind of guy who always makes a camp.
TOP 10 MOCK DRAFT
1) POR – RBDB Shepherd
Unless the Pioneers trade this pick, it’s a no-brainer. We’re talking about a franchise cornerstone on a very cheap deal.
2) RIC – OLDL McCarron
On a team full of holes, OLDL is still Richmond’s biggest need. A young stud lineman makes all the sense in the world here.
3) IND – WRDB Hanson
Indy desperately needs a QB, but the best available QB (Kingseed) seems to be a reach here. If they don’t trade out to get a quarterback, Hanson is certainly a worthy pick at this spot.
4) MXC – WRDB Fortney
Mexico City arguably needs a QB even more than Indy does, and they’ve been known to reach a little over the years. Still, a second starting WRDB is also a need so Fortney is a safe pick.
5) DAL – OLDL Kelly
Dallas has made some nice moves early but still has some holes. I know that they are still in the mix for some free agents but with the 2 best WRDBs off the board, taking a young OLDL prospect and likely week 1 starter for them would be a nice move.
6) ABI – OLDL Barber
Abilene has holes everywhere, so the line is a good place to start. I was tempted to send them Rick Smith, but Barber is a better building block.
7) Expansion Team #3 – OLDL Rick Smith
The last that I heard, the 3rd expansion team has yet to be finalized so who goes here is anyone’s guess. I really can’t see Smith slipping past 7.
8) FLA – DS Meier
The Tuskers have always valued the DS position and their likely starters there are far from young. Beibg that the Florida owner recently expressed a desire to get younger, this would be a sensible selection for them.
9) RUI – TEDL Morris
I could probably throw each name in a hat and have a better chance of nailing the Ruidoso pick here. The Kids like to do things unconventionally, to say the least. I do know that they want to get younger, so a guy like Morris, while an outside of the box pick, could very well be a good fit here. Or not.
10) FLA – OLDL Stockdale
Florida is back on the board for the 2nd time in 3 picks. What the Tuskers really need is a young 2-way skill player, especially a WRDB but the cupboard is pretty bare here. Turning to a nice young OLDL prospect in Stockdale might be the best option if they don’t trade out.
2023 OIFL Dispersal Draft Preview
This is an interesting dispersal draft class, for sure. It only has one superstar, but there are plenty of players, both young and old that will be helpful to some teams. I have broken the players down by position with some analysis on each.
DS
Meier – DS isn’t usually a position that’s very highly valued in drafts, but based on his age and attributes, I could see Meier being a fairly early pick.
Lippman – He’ll likely be on an opening week roster but he’s going to need a lot of tackling work to have any kind of real role going forward.
Ruscio – He’s only entering his 2nd year but might not even make a final roster unless he has a nice camp.
Barnhill - He’s a solid vet who has the potential to continue to get better. His superior tackling sets him apart from most DS.
Duggan – See Ruscio above.
OLDL
Smith – His age makes him hard to gauge in terms of where he will get drafted, but he is arguably the most talented OLDL in this draft, at least for this season. I can’t see him being picked ahead of McCarron, though.
Hillitzer – Like Smith, an older OLDL with a lot of talent. Unfortunately, he is even older and his lower leadership could mean he doesn’t last really long after this season. If I was drafting Smith, it would be with 2023 solely in mind and then anything else would be gravy.
Mackey – He’s a veteran who has been around a while but still needs work to play significant snaps. Having said that, he could be a good camp project for the right team, as long as he’s not drafted very high.
Jackson – Another older guy who is very solid but has never been spectacular. He could be a buy-low starter or a deep reserve. It all depends on where he lands.
Kelly – Kelly is a young guy who will be attractive to a lot of teams. He needs blocking work but is a nice prospect with plenty of room to grow. Expect him to be a fairly high pick.
Harding – He’s a veteran who is on the cusp of being a viable starter. One camp should get him there.
Daviault – He’s a young prospect who I’m sure some teams will like, but there are still multiple holes in his game.
Booth – He’s a former high first round pick who has never done much in the league but is still young. It’s going to take a nice camp for him to get much playing time, though. He’ll probably make the back end of a roster and not much more unless someone heavily invests in him.
McCarron – He was the brightest spot on a very dismal MEM team last year and figures to be a great player down the line. He’s already a viable starter and has the potential to be much more. I can’t see him getting beyond the first few picks, and if RIC stays at #2, he makes a ton of sense for them.
Halbert – Young prospect who still needs a lot of camp work to play much, but is definitely trainable.
Shamburger – Currently, the only thing that he can really do at a league average level is blitz, but for an OLDL it’s a good starting point. He’s very young and only in his 2nd year so some team will be excited to draft him.
Barber – He’s a young veteran who seems ready to make a breakthrough. I imagine that he’ll be highly sought after in this draft. Not a great tackler at present but his speed should negate that somewhat.
Metz – He’s very interesting. He’s been around for a while but has plenty left in the tank. He’s got solid attributes across the board but he probably won’t improve a ton in camp unless he’s part of a group train.
Trowbridge – Young, lower end prospect who will likely latch on somewhere
Stockdale – He’s a little like Barber but his lack of speed and tackling hurt him. He’s still very young so someone will be happy to train him up.
OS
Minnich – At this point, he’s an extreme longshot to make a final OIFL roster, despite his youth. He’ll still end up in camp somewhere.
QB
Kopfstein – He has starting experience but projects better as a backup. Then again, it’s not a great year for QBs in free agency or dispersal so stranger things have happened.
Kingseed – He’s the best of the dispersal QBs, but still an enigma. He’s still young but has been around for a while as both a backup and a starter, putting up some solid numbers when he did play. His legs are his best asset. If you’re looking for a pocket passer, keep looking.
Fitzgibbons – Young QB who currently is a 3rd string QB type on most teams, but has a little potential
RBDB
Staley, Jr. – He’s a veteran who’s a solid backup RBDB or spot starter. His superior tackling probably makes him best suited for a S role on defense.
Shepherd – He’s clearly the favorite to be picked first in this draft, especially since POR has a big need at RB. The crazy thing is, that if he was a DS, he’d probably still be a top
5, maybe even top 3 pick in this draft. He finished 3rd in the league in rushing last year and figures to only get better. He could be the piece that gets the Pioneers back into yearly playoff contention.
RBLB
Poulilot – It’s kinda crazy that he’s the only official RBLB in this draft. He’s far from a star but a good guy to have and could be useful in 2 back sets due to his blocking skills.
TEDL
Morris – Morris is a true wildcard. He’s only entering his 2nd season and he was a fairly high 1st rounder last year. Right now, he’s one of those guys who is a jack of all trades but a master of none. He was drafted by Philadelphia with the idea of unlocking his potential but he ended up being a bit of an afterthought in camp and was subsequently traded to Lincoln. He remains an intriguing prospect who could really blossom with the right team and the proper focus from the staff.
WRDB
Hanson – I see Hanson as someone who will go in the first 5 picks in this draft and maybe even top 3. The OIFL is a league that values and sometimes even overvalues speed and while he’s no Seymour Heller, Hanson definitely is fast enough to get noticed by many teams. He’s still a better DS at this point than WRDB but if you can get the fast, young WRDB prospect you generally don’t think twice.
Arryn – He’s been around a while and isn’t a star but can definitely play. At this point, he’s a little better offensively than defensively.
Fortney – Fortney is another guy who will likely be an early pick, and possibly top 5. He’s not nearly as flashy as a guy like Hanson is, but he is more well balanced. If you need a 2 way WRDB who can make some things happen after the catch, Fortney is a great pick.
Carr – Very young, 2nd year player who isn’t very good yet and won’t play much until he improves.
Edwards – A little older than Carr but also entering his 2nd season. Right now he projects as more of a DS but is still a very big project at best. He might not make it out of camp.
Blevins – He’s a vet who isn’t great but will make a roster. If he works on his speed and pass defense a little, he might actually earn more time at DS.
WRLB
Huber – He’s got a little talent in a lot of places but does no one thing very well. He’s young and trainable but needs a lot of work to see significant snaps anywhere.
Hansen – Not to be confused with WRDB HANSON. He’s technically a 2nd year player but age wise he’s more like a rookie. He couldn’t tackle your grandmother and isn’t really great anywhere but he’s the kind of guy who always makes a camp.
TOP 10 MOCK DRAFT
1) POR – RBDB Shepherd
Unless the Pioneers trade this pick, it’s a no-brainer. We’re talking about a franchise cornerstone on a very cheap deal.
2) RIC – OLDL McCarron
On a team full of holes, OLDL is still Richmond’s biggest need. A young stud lineman makes all the sense in the world here.
3) IND – WRDB Hanson
Indy desperately needs a QB, but the best available QB (Kingseed) seems to be a reach here. If they don’t trade out to get a quarterback, Hanson is certainly a worthy pick at this spot.
4) MXC – WRDB Fortney
Mexico City arguably needs a QB even more than Indy does, and they’ve been known to reach a little over the years. Still, a second starting WRDB is also a need so Fortney is a safe pick.
5) DAL – OLDL Kelly
Dallas has made some nice moves early but still has some holes. I know that they are still in the mix for some free agents but with the 2 best WRDBs off the board, taking a young OLDL prospect and likely week 1 starter for them would be a nice move.
6) ABI – OLDL Barber
Abilene has holes everywhere, so the line is a good place to start. I was tempted to send them Rick Smith, but Barber is a better building block.
7) Expansion Team #3 – OLDL Rick Smith
The last that I heard, the 3rd expansion team has yet to be finalized so who goes here is anyone’s guess. I really can’t see Smith slipping past 7.
8) FLA – DS Meier
The Tuskers have always valued the DS position and their likely starters there are far from young. Beibg that the Florida owner recently expressed a desire to get younger, this would be a sensible selection for them.
9) RUI – TEDL Morris
I could probably throw each name in a hat and have a better chance of nailing the Ruidoso pick here. The Kids like to do things unconventionally, to say the least. I do know that they want to get younger, so a guy like Morris, while an outside of the box pick, could very well be a good fit here. Or not.
10) FLA – OLDL Stockdale
Florida is back on the board for the 2nd time in 3 picks. What the Tuskers really need is a young 2-way skill player, especially a WRDB but the cupboard is pretty bare here. Turning to a nice young OLDL prospect in Stockdale might be the best option if they don’t trade out.